Making better product bets (when the data isn’t perfect)

Hey friends,

Some weeks, product work feels like a game of Clue. You’re swimming in metrics, test results, and user feedback, but still not quite sure what move to make next.

I’ve been there (honestly, I still land there often). But I’ve also learned that progress doesn’t always come from more data. Sometimes, the most impactful product decisions come from momentum, not certainty.

Here are 5 shifts I’m keeping close when the path feels unclear 👇️ 

🚢 You’ll never have all the data. Ship anyway!

I used to think being data-informed meant waiting until every chart lined up. But real life is messier than that.

The best decisions I’ve made weren’t because we had perfect signal, they were because we moved forward with what we had and adjusted fast.

📌 Where to Start:
✅ Ask yourself: What’s “enough” signal to move forward?
✅ Default to action, not analysis.
✅ Remember: Fast feedback > slow certainty.

💬 Mini Prompt: What’s one decision you’re over-researching right now? What would it look like to move it forward this week, even just as a V0.1?

🔕 More data ≠ more clarity

It’s tempting to think the answer is just one more test away. But sometimes, more data just adds noise.

Instead, zoom out: What’s the real decision you're trying to make? Is the data helping you get there or distracting you from it?

📌 Where to Start:
✅ Write your core question in one sentence.
✅ Gut-check whether the info you’re chasing is actually helping you answer it.
✅ Don’t confuse activity with progress.

🏁 Mini Challenge: Hit pause on a report or test you’re waiting on. What would you do if it didn’t exist?

🙌Trust your gut, but pressure test it

After a few years in product, you develop a strong instinct. You’ve seen enough patterns to know when something’s off or when a tiny idea could turn into a big one.

But instincts work best when they’re shared. I like to bring mine into a 10-minute convo with a teammate:
“This might be nothing, but here’s what I’m sensing…”

📌 Where to Start:
✅ Turn a hunch into a conversation.
✅ Look for alignment, not permission.
✅ Don’t wait for certainty, wait for signal.

🎮 Try this: Voice one instinct out loud this week and see what opens up.

📖 Related read: The RAPID decision-making model 

⚖️ Decision debt is real

We all know about tech debt. But decision debt can sneak up just as fast:
Looping on the same Slack thread, delaying calls because they feel uncomfortable, or staying “undecided” for weeks.

Some of the best PMs I know default to temporary clarity: pick a direction, test fast, and course-correct later.

📌 Where to Start:
✅ Identify one decision your team keeps circling.
✅ Ask: What would be a “good enough for now” call?
✅ Move it forward and plan a check-in.

❓ Mini Prompt: What’s one call you can help unblock this week?

📖 Related read: The real enemy is Product Debt

🧪 Build less, learn more

Big bets feel important. But some of the clearest signals come from tiny, fast tests.

Last quarter, we ran a simple A/B test to tweak our information architecture. The results were neutral and that saved us weeks of unnecessary work.

📌 Where to Start:
✅ Ask: What’s the smallest version of this idea that could teach us something?
✅ Use tools like Figma or Notion to mock it up.
✅ Bonus points if you can test without touching code.

🧠 Try this: Use Lovable to build a quick AI prototype, it’s scrappy, fun, and surprisingly insightful for early signals.

💡 Free Resource: Tiny Tests for Clarity

If you’re stuck in decision loops or planning too big, I made a worksheet to help you scope down product experiments so you can learn fast and build only what matters.

👉 Grab the template here

📬 Hit reply and tell me: What’s one move you’re making before you feel totally ready?

Until next time,
Stefanie